Blackjack Odds
As mentioned in the previous guide (blackjack rules), knowing when to use the options available to you is as important as knowing the options themselves. After having played a game or more knowing and playing around with the options, you may have noticed that there are options better suited to use during certain circumstances. Knowing when exactly to use these options is key and before discussing anything else, we would like to point out that keeping an eye on the dealer's face up card is as important as keeping tabs on your own hand. Effective blackjack players, knowing one of the cards of the dealer's hand, are able to calculate the odds of the dealer going bust or not.
Hit or Stand?
First and most basic thing to keep in mind is that in a standard deck, there will always be a higher chance of being dealt a 10-value card since there are a total of 16 of them. Thus the most basic of strategies is to always begin with the assumption that the dealer's second card's value is 10. From there it would then only be a matter of determining the chances of the dealer going bust or getting a good hand. To illustrate this, take a look at the following scenarios:
Scenario One
Scenario 1: Dealer's face up card is one of the following: 2,3,4,5,6
Player Action: Aim for a conservative hand making sure you don't bust
Explanation: Since we are working under the premise that the dealer's face down or second card is a 10, then having these face up values will give the dealer a higher chance of going bust since the dealer is forced to hit since any card added to these values cannot go over to 16 (remember that the dealer is forced to hit if the value of his hand is less than 17.). Even if the second card is not a 10, the dealer is still forced to hit thus increasing his chances of going bust even further.
Verdict: We must understand that we are dealing with chances here, and although there is a higher chance of the dealer going bust, there is also the possibility of the dealer getting a good enough total after hitting. Hence it is always good to stand when at a comfortable value, only gamble on standing at a lower value when the risk for busting yourself is high.
Scenario Two
Scenario 2: Dealer's face up card is one of the following: 7,8,9,10 value card, Ace
Player Action: Aim to get as close to 21 as possible.
Explaination: Again, keeping in mind the increased chance of getting a 10-value card, the following card values will force the dealer to stand around a total of 17-20 or even blackjack. As a rule of thumb when the dealer has these values face up, always aim for a total of 11 more than the value of the face up card of the dealer: 18 if the dealer's card is 17, 19 if the dealer's card is 8 and so on. The reason behind this is that if the dealer's second card does indeed have a value of 10 (which has a high chance of happening), you win since the dealer is then forced to stand at his total which is 1 less than your hand.
Verdict: It is more difficult for the player if the dealer has these cards since there is a higher chance for the dealer to get a total of 17 or more, hence lowering the chances of the dealer being forced to hit, therefore lowering the chances of dealer going bust. Because you can't rely on the dealer going bust, you yourself must aim to have an acceptable hand while not going bust.
As we stated above, there is an increased chance that the dealer is going to go bust when the face up cards are from 2 to 6. Hence the best option would be to prioritize not going bust over your hand's total value. Cards7-Ace is a different story however and when faced with this, one must make sure to get as close to 21 as possible.
Chances of busting after a hit
Knowing when to hit or stand is only half of the battle. To be able to understand further, we should learn more about the risks of hitting. To do this, we must take into account the odds of going bust when hitting from a certain hand value. This is very important during cases like scenario 2 up there where we are forced to hit in order get a decent hand to be able to beat the dealer since we can't count on the dealer going bust. As we all know, when we hit from a certain hand value, we risk the chance of going bust.
Odds of dealer's final hand value
Finally, no self-respecting blackjack player would ever go into a game without knowing the odds of the dealer getting the hand he has. In a fresh round, there is a 28.87% chance for a dealer to go bust and a decent enough percentage of getting between 17-21. Hand values of 16 and below get 0% since standard blackjack rules would require the dealer to hit with these hand values.
To recap, we have just explained how the basic blackjack strategy works in conjunction with all the odds you will ever need. Now there are much, much more complex strategies involved and developed by a lot of people. Explaining each would be a pain at best and mathematical thesis otherwise. That is why, over the years, people have developed backjack charts that take into consideration the dealer's face up card, the odds of winning against the possibilities of the dealer's hand with your current hand, and detailing the statistically best option to take.
